one wonders how something like that might have evolved, doesn’t one? What happened to all the humans who came with the mutation that made them want to find out whether the sabre-toothed tiger was friendly?
I don’t see how very unlikely events that people knew the probability of would have been part of the evolutionary environment at all.
In fact, I would posit that the bias is most likely due to having a very high floor for probability. In the evolutionary environment things with probability you knew to be <1% would be unlikely to ever be brought to your attention. So not having any good method for intuitively handling probabilities between 1% and zero would be expected.
In fact, I don’t think I have an innate handle on probability to any finer grain than ~10% increments. Anything more than that seems to require mathematical thought.
But probably far more than 1% of cave-men who chose to seek out a sabre-tooth tiger to see if they were friendly died due to doing so.
The relevant question on an issue of personal safety isn’t “What % of the population die due to trying this?”
The relevant question is: “What % of the people who try this will die?”
In the first case, rollerskating downhill, while on fire, after having taken arsenic would seem safe (as I suspect no-one has ever done precisely that)
I don’t see how very unlikely events that people knew the probability of would have been part of the evolutionary environment at all.
In fact, I would posit that the bias is most likely due to having a very high floor for probability. In the evolutionary environment things with probability you knew to be <1% would be unlikely to ever be brought to your attention. So not having any good method for intuitively handling probabilities between 1% and zero would be expected.
In fact, I don’t think I have an innate handle on probability to any finer grain than ~10% increments. Anything more than that seems to require mathematical thought.
Probably less than 1% of cave-men died by actively seeking out the sabre-toothed tiger to see if it was friendly. But I digress.
But probably far more than 1% of cave-men who chose to seek out a sabre-tooth tiger to see if they were friendly died due to doing so.
The relevant question on an issue of personal safety isn’t “What % of the population die due to trying this?”
The relevant question is: “What % of the people who try this will die?”
In the first case, rollerskating downhill, while on fire, after having taken arsenic would seem safe (as I suspect no-one has ever done precisely that)