The right question is whether a decision maker in 2007 should be 5% more interested in doing something about the 2008 issue than about the 2009 issue.
And that is a fact about 2007 decision maker, not 2008 family’s value as compared to 2009 family.
If, in 2007, you present me with a choice of clean water for a family for all of and only 2008 vs 2009, and you further assure me that these families will otherwise survive in hardship, and that their suffering in one year won’t materially affect their next year, and that I won’t have this opportunity again come this time next year, and that flow-on or snowball effects which benefit from an early start are not a factor here—then I would be indifferent to the choice.
If I would not be; if there is something intrinsic about earlier times that makes them more valuable, and not just a heuristic of preferring them for snowballing or flow-on reasons, then that is what Eliezer is saying seems wrong.
And that is a fact about 2007 decision maker, not 2008 family’s value as compared to 2009 family.
If, in 2007, you present me with a choice of clean water for a family for all of and only 2008 vs 2009, and you further assure me that these families will otherwise survive in hardship, and that their suffering in one year won’t materially affect their next year, and that I won’t have this opportunity again come this time next year, and that flow-on or snowball effects which benefit from an early start are not a factor here—then I would be indifferent to the choice.
If I would not be; if there is something intrinsic about earlier times that makes them more valuable, and not just a heuristic of preferring them for snowballing or flow-on reasons, then that is what Eliezer is saying seems wrong.