That’s good to hear. But if “he started at 60%,” that seems to mean if he “still thinks dark matter is overwhelmingly likely” he is updating in the wrong direction. (Perhaps he thought it was 60% likely that the LHC found dark matter? In which case I still think that he should update away from “overwhelmingly likely”—it’s weak evidence against the hypothesis, but unless he started out almost certain, “overwhelmingly” seems to go a bit too far.)
Yes, 60% that the LHC would find a dark matter candidate. Anyhow, maybe you should take away that this emphasizes that he does (and cosmologists in general do) have lots of evidence.
That’s good to hear. But if “he started at 60%,” that seems to mean if he “still thinks dark matter is overwhelmingly likely” he is updating in the wrong direction. (Perhaps he thought it was 60% likely that the LHC found dark matter? In which case I still think that he should update away from “overwhelmingly likely”—it’s weak evidence against the hypothesis, but unless he started out almost certain, “overwhelmingly” seems to go a bit too far.)
Yes, 60% that the LHC would find a dark matter candidate. Anyhow, maybe you should take away that this emphasizes that he does (and cosmologists in general do) have lots of evidence.