Well, I disagree strongly with metacalus. Anyway, the most likely way that “human brain emulation [will] be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence” would be using an understanding of the brain to engineer an intelligence (such as the Numenta approach), not a complete, faithful, exact reproduction of a specific human’s brain.
metaculus community is terribly calibrated, and not by accident—it’s simply the median of community predictions. it’s normal to think you disagree with the median prediction by a lot.
I think you are overconfident. Metaculus gives it 5%:
Well, I disagree strongly with metacalus. Anyway, the most likely way that “human brain emulation [will] be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence” would be using an understanding of the brain to engineer an intelligence (such as the Numenta approach), not a complete, faithful, exact reproduction of a specific human’s brain.
Please add your prediction to Metaculus then.
metaculus community is terribly calibrated, and not by accident—it’s simply the median of community predictions. it’s normal to think you disagree with the median prediction by a lot.