Moreover, the worst of the pandemic, or at least of this first wave, will be over in 2-3 months, as long as the containment measures are in place,
What’s the mechanism behind the slowing growth? When we let up on our measures (quarantine etc) why will the growth not speed up again, until most of the population have been exposed?
I think you are absolutely right. Containment measure can decrease the amount of individuals with severe symptoms at any given time and thereby not overload hospitals too much. End result will be less casualties but longer pandemic.
I’m not quite that sure I’m right. (I was genuinely asking about the mechanism, not claiming there isn’t one!) I am not an expert and there are other epidemics that die out without having infected most of the population, like indeed seasonal flu and cold, and I don’t know all the causes of that that might apply here.
End result will be less casualties but longer pandemic.
It could be worse; ‘less overall casualties’ relies on the reasonable but unproven assumptions of:
Reliable natural immunization, i.e. people won’t (often) catch it twice
Few or no mutations that act as a ‘second wave’ or in the extreme case like the seasonal flu that happens every year
(Most) people with light/no symptoms don’t end up with long term complications, or a persistent virus that can reactivate later
What’s the mechanism behind the slowing growth? When we let up on our measures (quarantine etc) why will the growth not speed up again, until most of the population have been exposed?
I think you are absolutely right. Containment measure can decrease the amount of individuals with severe symptoms at any given time and thereby not overload hospitals too much. End result will be less casualties but longer pandemic.
I’m not quite that sure I’m right. (I was genuinely asking about the mechanism, not claiming there isn’t one!) I am not an expert and there are other epidemics that die out without having infected most of the population, like indeed seasonal flu and cold, and I don’t know all the causes of that that might apply here.
It could be worse; ‘less overall casualties’ relies on the reasonable but unproven assumptions of:
Reliable natural immunization, i.e. people won’t (often) catch it twice
Few or no mutations that act as a ‘second wave’ or in the extreme case like the seasonal flu that happens every year
(Most) people with light/no symptoms don’t end up with long term complications, or a persistent virus that can reactivate later