What does it mean for the future? That it takes about a week of a severe lockdown to switch from the exponential growth to linear, about two weeks to switch to leveling off, and three to four weeks to start seeing a meaningful decline.
This is because of the incubation period (3-14d) and the delay between people becoming symptomatic and getting tested. The reduction in transmissions is immediate, it just takes awhile to notice.
In this post I collected papers which estimate the incubation period (time from exposure to symptom onset) and the serial interval (time from exposure to infecting the next person in the chain). Studies get varying results because they’re done in different populations and have methodological differences, but find reasonably similar medians. A few of them also provide full distributions over incubation periods and serial intervals.
This is because of the incubation period (3-14d) and the delay between people becoming symptomatic and getting tested. The reduction in transmissions is immediate, it just takes awhile to notice.
Does anyone have any reasonably good estimate on what the average incubation period is?
In this post I collected papers which estimate the incubation period (time from exposure to symptom onset) and the serial interval (time from exposure to infecting the next person in the chain). Studies get varying results because they’re done in different populations and have methodological differences, but find reasonably similar medians. A few of them also provide full distributions over incubation periods and serial intervals.