I would prefer to see fewer of these “Here’s someone saying something vaguely relevant to transhumanism/FAI”-type posts. I don’t mind when it’s a well-known thinker whose opinion is actually worth updating on, or if the person in question can reach an extremely large audience, but I don’t think someone like Jason Silva is worth a discussion post.
It’s my hope that Jason can update on our ideas, and he certainly does seem to have the potential to reach a large, if not extremely large audience. And it’s my intuition that he will be more inclined to update while he is gaining popularity, than after he reaches it.
In my mind, this falls into rationality and X-risk outreach, and lies squarely within Discussion territory.
I suspect we have differing expectations about how well-known Silva will become. This isn’t a precise prediction, but I believe with ~65% confidence that he is at roughly the peak of his popularity (measured in terms of how frequently his name appears in blogs and major news outlets).
Personally, I would prefer to see fewer posts on x-risk outreach, especially those focused on contacting specific people, and especially when said person isn’t very well-known.
I agree resources are well spent reaching out to those with a larger audience. But I would assert that it would take less resources to influence those with a smaller current audience; that the larger one’s audience, the more one’s current opinions are mentally reinforced.
And, he seems a prime target to be invited to the Singularity Summit, where he’d have hopefully influential social contact with SI folks.
Can I ask why you prefer to see fewer posts on outreach?
That estimate sounds, if anything, a bit low. However, if there is a significant chance he will become very popular in the future, it may still be worthwhile to introduce him those topics now.
I would prefer to see fewer of these “Here’s someone saying something vaguely relevant to transhumanism/FAI”-type posts. I don’t mind when it’s a well-known thinker whose opinion is actually worth updating on, or if the person in question can reach an extremely large audience, but I don’t think someone like Jason Silva is worth a discussion post.
You missed OP’s point, which is crowdsourcing:
Sorry, my phrasing wasn’t very clear. I understood OP’s intent; I just don’t want to see outreach posts about lesser-known people.
Using them for practice might be useful and instructive.
It’s my hope that Jason can update on our ideas, and he certainly does seem to have the potential to reach a large, if not extremely large audience. And it’s my intuition that he will be more inclined to update while he is gaining popularity, than after he reaches it.
In my mind, this falls into rationality and X-risk outreach, and lies squarely within Discussion territory.
I suspect we have differing expectations about how well-known Silva will become. This isn’t a precise prediction, but I believe with ~65% confidence that he is at roughly the peak of his popularity (measured in terms of how frequently his name appears in blogs and major news outlets).
Personally, I would prefer to see fewer posts on x-risk outreach, especially those focused on contacting specific people, and especially when said person isn’t very well-known.
I agree resources are well spent reaching out to those with a larger audience. But I would assert that it would take less resources to influence those with a smaller current audience; that the larger one’s audience, the more one’s current opinions are mentally reinforced.
And, he seems a prime target to be invited to the Singularity Summit, where he’d have hopefully influential social contact with SI folks.
Can I ask why you prefer to see fewer posts on outreach?
That estimate sounds, if anything, a bit low. However, if there is a significant chance he will become very popular in the future, it may still be worthwhile to introduce him those topics now.