Nic, the problem I’m referring to is not that stories are not generated from probability distributions, but that the stories don’t explicitly describe probability distributions. If I want to give a rational analysis of the stock market, I have to be able to say “60% probability that the stock market goes up, 40% probability that it goes down.” Rolling a 10-sided die, getting 7, and saying firmly “Now the stock market will go down!” doesn’t cut it. If it’s a story, though, I have to say either “The stock market went up” or “The stock market went down”, one or the other.
Nic, the problem I’m referring to is not that stories are not generated from probability distributions, but that the stories don’t explicitly describe probability distributions. If I want to give a rational analysis of the stock market, I have to be able to say “60% probability that the stock market goes up, 40% probability that it goes down.” Rolling a 10-sided die, getting 7, and saying firmly “Now the stock market will go down!” doesn’t cut it. If it’s a story, though, I have to say either “The stock market went up” or “The stock market went down”, one or the other.