Taleb has the second question mostly right. It is reasonable to be skeptical of a view which presents difficulties reasoning from the past to the future, but we have a lot of evidence that we’re bad at reasoning from the past to the future, and the models that suggest anthropic issues are robust.
Taleb has the second question mostly right. It is reasonable to be skeptical of a view which presents difficulties reasoning from the past to the future, but we have a lot of evidence that we’re bad at reasoning from the past to the future, and the models that suggest anthropic issues are robust.