I see you as arguing that the probability of winning the lottery still seems to be low, even in “strange worlds” (like simulations). I agree. It just seems to be much higher, which is what we need. The physical probability of me selecting the winning numbers is several orders of magnitude smaller than the seeming ‘mental salience’ of the possibility; and the mental salience is a much better estimate of the odds if the universe is ‘fundamentally mental’ (ie, a simulation put together by intelligent beings, or other related strange possibilities).
So, it still seems to be an excellent test; if we buy a ticket and win, we can conclude that we are in a simulation (or other ‘strange world’).
I see you as arguing that the probability of winning the lottery still seems to be low, even in “strange worlds” (like simulations). I agree. It just seems to be much higher, which is what we need. The physical probability of me selecting the winning numbers is several orders of magnitude smaller than the seeming ‘mental salience’ of the possibility; and the mental salience is a much better estimate of the odds if the universe is ‘fundamentally mental’ (ie, a simulation put together by intelligent beings, or other related strange possibilities).
So, it still seems to be an excellent test; if we buy a ticket and win, we can conclude that we are in a simulation (or other ‘strange world’).