How much more probable is it that a given world selected from the expected simulated worlds gives a win than that I would win the real lottery?
Yes, very good… I suppose I’m not sure. My heuristic is to imagine that simulations are probable roughly in proportion to the length of their English descriptions, whereas “real worlds” are probable in proportion to physical probability (ie, descriptions in the language of physics). According to that heuristic, the question is how probable the phrase “winning the lottery” is as compared to 10^-8 (which I assume is a sufficiently good estimate of the physical probability of winning the lottery, conditioned on experiences so far). I don’t have a good estimate of this phrase’s frequency. (Anyone have suggestions for how to find one?)
Yes, very good… I suppose I’m not sure. My heuristic is to imagine that simulations are probable roughly in proportion to the length of their English descriptions, whereas “real worlds” are probable in proportion to physical probability (ie, descriptions in the language of physics). According to that heuristic, the question is how probable the phrase “winning the lottery” is as compared to 10^-8 (which I assume is a sufficiently good estimate of the physical probability of winning the lottery, conditioned on experiences so far). I don’t have a good estimate of this phrase’s frequency. (Anyone have suggestions for how to find one?)