The point of his argument, if I understand correctly, is that we should expect a bubonic plague in the future to be more of an x-risk than it was in the past, because our past evidence is filtered by anthropic considerations. And because his argument isn’t in any way specific to the plague, he will expect x-risks in general to be more prevalent in the future.
However, I don’t understand how to quantify this. How much should I update towards the next bubonic plague being an x-risk? A little? A lot?
The historical plague could have wiped out humanity, but for anthropic reasons. And also, the flu of 1918 could have wiped out humanity, but for anthropic reasons. And the flu virus created recently in the lab could have escaped and wiped out humanity, but didn’t, for anthropic reasons. And also I have in my garage the pestilent bacterium Draco invisibilis, and if it ever infects a human, we are all doomed; but it never has, for anthropic reasons...
The point of his argument, if I understand correctly, is that we should expect a bubonic plague in the future to be more of an x-risk than it was in the past, because our past evidence is filtered by anthropic considerations. And because his argument isn’t in any way specific to the plague, he will expect x-risks in general to be more prevalent in the future.
However, I don’t understand how to quantify this. How much should I update towards the next bubonic plague being an x-risk? A little? A lot?
The historical plague could have wiped out humanity, but for anthropic reasons. And also, the flu of 1918 could have wiped out humanity, but for anthropic reasons. And the flu virus created recently in the lab could have escaped and wiped out humanity, but didn’t, for anthropic reasons. And also I have in my garage the pestilent bacterium Draco invisibilis, and if it ever infects a human, we are all doomed; but it never has, for anthropic reasons...