Could you give a more precise definition of “calibrated”? Your example of 1⁄37 for each of 37 different possibilities, justified by saying that indeed one of the 37 will happen, seems facile. Do you mean that the “correct” distribution, relative to your guess, has low relative entropy?
Could you give a more precise definition of “calibrated”? Your example of 1⁄37 for each of 37 different possibilities, justified by saying that indeed one of the 37 will happen, seems facile. Do you mean that the “correct” distribution, relative to your guess, has low relative entropy?