I downvoted because in brief a) this article is very one-sided b) When you read human history, the plethora of collapses IMHO puts a strong onus of proof on those who argue it won’t happen again c) There are many warning signs of huge problems ahead—global warming, resource depletion (soils, fresh water, phosphates, oil, coal, uranium, numerous other minerals), overpopulation, increasing proliferation of nuclear weapons d) Our so clever civilization depends utterly on cheap energy and this looks like ending fairly soon e) There is no clear evidence that technological progress is rapid enough to solve these problems.
a) Yes, it is, but that’s the point of it. And the viewpoint seems self-justified to me.
b) The article makes no claim that “progress” is continuous or smooth or monotonically increasing, or that it doesn’t suffer setbacks. The point is that *in spite* of setbacks, civilization has experienced net progress and there appears to be reason to expect that to continue—in the long run.
c) Yes, but there’s a feedback loop at work. The more that problems create pain for people, the more people focus resources and attention on finding solutions for those problems.
d) Again, yes, we depend on cheap energy. There seem to be lots of other ways to obtain that other than burning fossil fuels—nuclear power is the most obvious solution, tho there are others. And, again, there’s a feedback loop at work—as energy prices increase, that will create incentives to find cheaper sources.
e) “Rapid enough” is a function of attention, capital, and effort invested into solving problems. As we work harder to solve problems, our rate of progress at solving those problems increases.
Of course there are existential risks—most of them involve very short-term catastrophes that may happen too rapidly for people to adapt and respond to. It’s urgent that we think about preventing them. The fact that we’re here talking about it is a good sign.
But people—and civilization in general—aren’t passive victims of vast historical forces. They act and influence outcomes.
In the words of Karl Popper, “Optimism is a duty. The future is open. It is not predetermined. No one can predict it, except by chance. We all contribute to determining it by what we do. We are all equally responsible for its success. ”
a) Agreed, although I don’t find this inappropriate in context.
b) I do agree that the fact that many successful past civilizations are now in ruins with their books lost is a important sign of danger. But surely there is some onus of proof in the opposite direction from the near-monotonic increase in population over the last few millennia?
c) These are certainly extremely important problems going forwards. I would particularly emphasize the nukes.
d) Agreed. But on the centuries scale, there is extreme potential in orbital solar power and fusion.
e) Agreed. But I think it’s easy to underestimate the problems our ancestors faced. In my opinion, some huge ones of past centuries include: ice ages, supervolcanic eruptions, the difficulty of maintaining stable monarchies, the bubonic plague, Columbian smallpox, the ubiquitous oppression of women, harmful theocracies, majority illiteracy, the Malthusian dilemma, and the prevalence of total war as a dominant paradigm. Is there evidence that past problems were easier than 2019 ones?
It sounds like your perspective is that, before 2100, wars and upcoming increases in resource scarcity will cause a inescapable global economic decline that will bring most of the planet to a 1800s-esque standard of living, followed by a return to slow growth (standard of living, infrastructure, food, energy, productivity) for the next couple centuries. Do I correctly understand your perspective?
I downvoted because in brief a) this article is very one-sided b) When you read human history, the plethora of collapses IMHO puts a strong onus of proof on those who argue it won’t happen again c) There are many warning signs of huge problems ahead—global warming, resource depletion (soils, fresh water, phosphates, oil, coal, uranium, numerous other minerals), overpopulation, increasing proliferation of nuclear weapons d) Our so clever civilization depends utterly on cheap energy and this looks like ending fairly soon e) There is no clear evidence that technological progress is rapid enough to solve these problems.
@waveman:
a) Yes, it is, but that’s the point of it. And the viewpoint seems self-justified to me.
b) The article makes no claim that “progress” is continuous or smooth or monotonically increasing, or that it doesn’t suffer setbacks. The point is that *in spite* of setbacks, civilization has experienced net progress and there appears to be reason to expect that to continue—in the long run.
c) Yes, but there’s a feedback loop at work. The more that problems create pain for people, the more people focus resources and attention on finding solutions for those problems.
d) Again, yes, we depend on cheap energy. There seem to be lots of other ways to obtain that other than burning fossil fuels—nuclear power is the most obvious solution, tho there are others. And, again, there’s a feedback loop at work—as energy prices increase, that will create incentives to find cheaper sources.
e) “Rapid enough” is a function of attention, capital, and effort invested into solving problems. As we work harder to solve problems, our rate of progress at solving those problems increases.
Of course there are existential risks—most of them involve very short-term catastrophes that may happen too rapidly for people to adapt and respond to. It’s urgent that we think about preventing them. The fact that we’re here talking about it is a good sign.
But people—and civilization in general—aren’t passive victims of vast historical forces. They act and influence outcomes.
In the words of Karl Popper, “Optimism is a duty. The future is open. It is not predetermined. No one can predict it, except by chance. We all contribute to determining it by what we do. We are all equally responsible for its success. ”
a) Agreed, although I don’t find this inappropriate in context.
b) I do agree that the fact that many successful past civilizations are now in ruins with their books lost is a important sign of danger. But surely there is some onus of proof in the opposite direction from the near-monotonic increase in population over the last few millennia?
c) These are certainly extremely important problems going forwards. I would particularly emphasize the nukes.
d) Agreed. But on the centuries scale, there is extreme potential in orbital solar power and fusion.
e) Agreed. But I think it’s easy to underestimate the problems our ancestors faced. In my opinion, some huge ones of past centuries include: ice ages, supervolcanic eruptions, the difficulty of maintaining stable monarchies, the bubonic plague, Columbian smallpox, the ubiquitous oppression of women, harmful theocracies, majority illiteracy, the Malthusian dilemma, and the prevalence of total war as a dominant paradigm. Is there evidence that past problems were easier than 2019 ones?
It sounds like your perspective is that, before 2100, wars and upcoming increases in resource scarcity will cause a inescapable global economic decline that will bring most of the planet to a 1800s-esque standard of living, followed by a return to slow growth (standard of living, infrastructure, food, energy, productivity) for the next couple centuries. Do I correctly understand your perspective?