solar seems to be (period 28) + (period 9) + (shortish upward transients) + (very small noise), and the periodic parts are predicted to be at 45 on day 384.
That’s a good start. What about the others? Well,
lunar appears to be 75-solar, shifted by 14 days. On day 384 we expect it to be experiencing the reverse of solar’s most recent upward transient; it will not be a good candidate for Morgan’s purposes.
Annoyingly
ocean, breeze, flame, ash and earth all look rather unpredictable, except that ash is basically a scaled copy of the previous day’s flame; none of them will be predictably at 25ish or more on day 384. I would be extremely unsurprised to find that some of these are more predictable than I think (e.g., breeze has a suspicious number of peaks at the same height and 6 or 7 days apart; maybe this is real, and maybe it’s caused by something I could exploit with more work or ingenuity) but for now I’m leaving them alone. (Flame/ash also seems like it’s not just uncorrelated random noise, but it might e.g. be low-pass-filtered noise.) Earth seems to have a pretty good chance of being big enough on any given day, but something more predictable would be better.
What about the bad ones?
Spite is perfectly predictable, being a sum of periodic spikes with periods 4, 5, 7, and 14; on dat 384 it will be zero. Void seems rather unpredictable, though its overall level isn’t far off what we need—but if we have to rely on luck we have better chances with earth than with void.
More helpfully,
doom has a strong periodic component of period 8 (and, alas, occasional single-day transients); its periodic component will be 30 on day 384. Unless we get unlucky with a sizeable negative transient, it seems like solar+doom is a likely winner.
Would this lead to danger of apocalypse?
It doesn’t look like it. Solar is almost always bigger than doom; the largest doom-solar has ever been is 13, when our periodic estimates would have predicted an excess of 9; we are predicting solar=45 and doom=30 so we have plenty of slack to spare.
I don’t see any obvious sign of
an abrupt change in the data that might correspond to the supernova.
Things I’ve been looking for:
Strong periodic components (either sinusoidal with any period, as found e.g. by FFT or periodogram calculations, or with integer period and arbitrary shape). Close correspondences between different kinds of mana, but I haven’t looked for fancy things as opposed to the simple solar/lunar and flame/ash relationships. Short-term autocorrelation within a single type of mana. Long-term trends (no sign of any of these).
One notable thing I haven’t bothered looking for:
Matches between either the raw data or the locations of peaks or troughs or anomalies, and things in the OEIS. (Despite our character’s name.) That sort of thing would be amusing but feels like it would be a cheat even if it were there. Also, most OEIS sequences don’t look much like random-ish noise.
So my advice to Morgan at present would be
to go for solar + doom
which will
almost certainly yield a total a little over 70, and almost certainly not cause a catastrophe; I think unexpectedly good outcomes are a bit more likely than unexpectedly bad ones.
Having read other answers, I add
that aphyer’s suggestion looks strictly better than mine; annoyingly, I had noticed that there was some weak evidence of period-22 components in both earth and ocean but never bothered looking at their sum; in hindsight, eyeballing the plots of [EDITED to add for clarity: the sums of] all pairs of mana types with any chance of reaching 70 should have been a super-obvious thing to do, but I am a moron and didn’t do that.
I observe that
solar seems to be (period 28) + (period 9) + (shortish upward transients) + (very small noise), and the periodic parts are predicted to be at 45 on day 384.
That’s a good start. What about the others? Well,
lunar appears to be 75-solar, shifted by 14 days. On day 384 we expect it to be experiencing the reverse of solar’s most recent upward transient; it will not be a good candidate for Morgan’s purposes.
Annoyingly
ocean, breeze, flame, ash and earth all look rather unpredictable, except that ash is basically a scaled copy of the previous day’s flame; none of them will be predictably at 25ish or more on day 384. I would be extremely unsurprised to find that some of these are more predictable than I think (e.g., breeze has a suspicious number of peaks at the same height and 6 or 7 days apart; maybe this is real, and maybe it’s caused by something I could exploit with more work or ingenuity) but for now I’m leaving them alone. (Flame/ash also seems like it’s not just uncorrelated random noise, but it might e.g. be low-pass-filtered noise.) Earth seems to have a pretty good chance of being big enough on any given day, but something more predictable would be better.
What about the bad ones?
Spite is perfectly predictable, being a sum of periodic spikes with periods 4, 5, 7, and 14; on dat 384 it will be zero. Void seems rather unpredictable, though its overall level isn’t far off what we need—but if we have to rely on luck we have better chances with earth than with void.
More helpfully,
doom has a strong periodic component of period 8 (and, alas, occasional single-day transients); its periodic component will be 30 on day 384. Unless we get unlucky with a sizeable negative transient, it seems like solar+doom is a likely winner.
Would this lead to danger of apocalypse?
It doesn’t look like it. Solar is almost always bigger than doom; the largest doom-solar has ever been is 13, when our periodic estimates would have predicted an excess of 9; we are predicting solar=45 and doom=30 so we have plenty of slack to spare.
I don’t see any obvious sign of
an abrupt change in the data that might correspond to the supernova.
Things I’ve been looking for:
Strong periodic components (either sinusoidal with any period, as found e.g. by FFT or periodogram calculations, or with integer period and arbitrary shape). Close correspondences between different kinds of mana, but I haven’t looked for fancy things as opposed to the simple solar/lunar and flame/ash relationships. Short-term autocorrelation within a single type of mana. Long-term trends (no sign of any of these).
One notable thing I haven’t bothered looking for:
Matches between either the raw data or the locations of peaks or troughs or anomalies, and things in the OEIS. (Despite our character’s name.) That sort of thing would be amusing but feels like it would be a cheat even if it were there. Also, most OEIS sequences don’t look much like random-ish noise.
So my advice to Morgan at present would be
to go for solar + doom
which will
almost certainly yield a total a little over 70, and almost certainly not cause a catastrophe; I think unexpectedly good outcomes are a bit more likely than unexpectedly bad ones.
Having read other answers, I add
that aphyer’s suggestion looks strictly better than mine; annoyingly, I had noticed that there was some weak evidence of period-22 components in both earth and ocean but never bothered looking at their sum; in hindsight, eyeballing the plots of [EDITED to add for clarity: the sums of] all pairs of mana types with any chance of reaching 70 should have been a super-obvious thing to do, but I am a moron and didn’t do that.