This is the situation where it could be useful to have a prediction market for “which country will be next invaded by Russia?”. I don’t have high confidence for my predictions here.
My guess is merely: within 10 years, Russia will invade another country, one they share a border with. But I’m not sure which one.
Finland seems like an interesting target: it is a EU member, but not a NATO member. NATO has weapons, EU has rationalizations why not doing anything is the wisest policy ever.
On the other hand, there are former Soviet Union countries where Russia can use the excuse “they belonged to us historically anyway, and there is our minority we have to protect”. I don’t know how important each of these factors is for Russia when deciding its next target.
This is the situation where it could be useful to have a prediction market for “which country will be next invaded by Russia?”. I don’t have high confidence for my predictions here.
My guess is merely: within 10 years, Russia will invade another country, one they share a border with. But I’m not sure which one.
Finland seems like an interesting target: it is a EU member, but not a NATO member. NATO has weapons, EU has rationalizations why not doing anything is the wisest policy ever.
On the other hand, there are former Soviet Union countries where Russia can use the excuse “they belonged to us historically anyway, and there is our minority we have to protect”. I don’t know how important each of these factors is for Russia when deciding its next target.