So I can use “unjustifiable” methods to get even closer to the truth? Screw “rationality”, then!
Yes, you can. But with a lower probability. At the limiting case you can add or subtract an epsilon from the ‘rational’ probability assignment and you will be closer to the truth (0.5 - _different_epsilon_) of the time.
This applies to instrumental rationality too. A lucky guess will win you the lottery. An expected utility calculation will not (except when extremely desperate and similarly lucky).
Yes, you can. But with a lower probability. At the limiting case you can add or subtract an epsilon from the ‘rational’ probability assignment and you will be closer to the truth (0.5 - _different_epsilon_) of the time.
This applies to instrumental rationality too. A lucky guess will win you the lottery. An expected utility calculation will not (except when extremely desperate and similarly lucky).