This post is essentially my response to Pascal’s mugging.
a)If an event is extremely unlikely to occur then trying to maximise expected utility is foolish unless it is repeated multiple times. In the case of the lottery, you need to buy millions of tickets to have a reasonable chance of winning once (ignoring small prizes here). In the mugging, you have to be mugged an absolutely absurd number of times before any of the muggers are even remotely likely to be telling the truth
b)The hidden and secret response, which is this:
even if the lottery has positive expected utility, there are likely to be alternate uses for your money which will give better ones! If you have the money to win the lottery, you can invest elsewhere and get better returns. This is true for Pascal’s mugging, where you can go spend your 10 dollars to save lives immediately via a recommendation from give well.
This post is essentially my response to Pascal’s mugging.
a)If an event is extremely unlikely to occur then trying to maximise expected utility is foolish unless it is repeated multiple times. In the case of the lottery, you need to buy millions of tickets to have a reasonable chance of winning once (ignoring small prizes here). In the mugging, you have to be mugged an absolutely absurd number of times before any of the muggers are even remotely likely to be telling the truth b)The hidden and secret response, which is this:
even if the lottery has positive expected utility, there are likely to be alternate uses for your money which will give better ones! If you have the money to win the lottery, you can invest elsewhere and get better returns. This is true for Pascal’s mugging, where you can go spend your 10 dollars to save lives immediately via a recommendation from give well.