Yeah, I’m quite curious to understand this point too—certainly not sure how far this reasoning can be applied (and whether Ferdinand is too much of a stretch). I was thinking of this assassination as the “perturbation in a super-cooled liquid”—where it’s really the overall geopolitical tension that was the dominant cause, and anything could have set off the global phase transition. Though this gets back to the limitations of counter-factual causality in the real-world...
It not determined by reality, it’s determined by your interests. The geopolitical tension and the assassination are both reasonable answers, depending on the exact question.
Yeah, I’m quite curious to understand this point too—certainly not sure how far this reasoning can be applied (and whether Ferdinand is too much of a stretch). I was thinking of this assassination as the “perturbation in a super-cooled liquid”—where it’s really the overall geopolitical tension that was the dominant cause, and anything could have set off the global phase transition. Though this gets back to the limitations of counter-factual causality in the real-world...
It not determined by reality, it’s determined by your interests. The geopolitical tension and the assassination are both reasonable answers, depending on the exact question.