Just adding some additional context that might be useful. PredictIt is a similar election betting platform but has a cap on the maximum amount traders are able to bet (I think <$1k, so relatively low). This means that if Polymarket is a money-weighted information aggregation mechanism, PredictIt is a person-weighted information aggregation mechanism. As noted in the post, from 6th October to just now Trump has gone from 50.8 to 60.1 meaning a difference of 1.6 cents with Kamala to a 20.2 cent difference (18.6 cent swing). On predictit he’s gone from 51:53 to 55:48 on the same interval (9 cent swing). Of course it’s possible that people on PredictIt are changing their bets due to Polymarket prices (eg. by arbitraging), but there’s some evidence that at least half the change isn’t due to these large bettors (whether those large bettors are trading based on private information, for manipulation purposes, or other reasons).
Just adding some additional context that might be useful. PredictIt is a similar election betting platform but has a cap on the maximum amount traders are able to bet (I think <$1k, so relatively low). This means that if Polymarket is a money-weighted information aggregation mechanism, PredictIt is a person-weighted information aggregation mechanism. As noted in the post, from 6th October to just now Trump has gone from 50.8 to 60.1 meaning a difference of 1.6 cents with Kamala to a 20.2 cent difference (18.6 cent swing). On predictit he’s gone from 51:53 to 55:48 on the same interval (9 cent swing). Of course it’s possible that people on PredictIt are changing their bets due to Polymarket prices (eg. by arbitraging), but there’s some evidence that at least half the change isn’t due to these large bettors (whether those large bettors are trading based on private information, for manipulation purposes, or other reasons).