I do try to think in terms of fallacies, and I think that warning signs are indeed important heuristics, though they can be spurious. They should make you update your beliefs to some extent.
At the very least, when you notice them you should do a formal outside view perspective, to compare to your inside view perspective. You can often learn a bit about how to present things this way.
What do you mean by causal models in this context?
I think that the discussion would have gone more productively if you had narrowed your original comment to the feature of the ritual that worried you, the effect it could have, and how that feature could reasonably lead to that effect. Then, people can focus on the individual components of the specific worry, rather the amorphous charge of cultishness. Even if you only noticed the danger because of it sounded your cult alarm, you don’t need to use that as part of your explanation of why you think it’s dangerous.
Indeed, if you can’t come up with an independent reason for why it’s dangerous, that’s moderate evidence that it’s not dangerous, but still suggests something like “I’m worried about group confessions as a component of this ritual; what could go wrong?”, which will get the contrarians to do your imagining for you.
Even if in the majority of these meetings all or most members are long-time friends, there can be concerns about sharing very personal information.
I think these concerns are worth informing attendees about- “hey, remember, there’s no oath of secrecy here, but also please don’t spread stories without permission”- but because attendees can choose to share whatever they like, there’s no element of coercion to be worried about. (There might be a reciprocity concern, but that seems minimal and could be ameliorated with the addition of a targeted “X is verboten” rule.)
You’re welcome!
At the very least, when you notice them you should do a formal outside view perspective, to compare to your inside view perspective. You can often learn a bit about how to present things this way.
I think that the discussion would have gone more productively if you had narrowed your original comment to the feature of the ritual that worried you, the effect it could have, and how that feature could reasonably lead to that effect. Then, people can focus on the individual components of the specific worry, rather the amorphous charge of cultishness. Even if you only noticed the danger because of it sounded your cult alarm, you don’t need to use that as part of your explanation of why you think it’s dangerous.
Indeed, if you can’t come up with an independent reason for why it’s dangerous, that’s moderate evidence that it’s not dangerous, but still suggests something like “I’m worried about group confessions as a component of this ritual; what could go wrong?”, which will get the contrarians to do your imagining for you.
I think these concerns are worth informing attendees about- “hey, remember, there’s no oath of secrecy here, but also please don’t spread stories without permission”- but because attendees can choose to share whatever they like, there’s no element of coercion to be worried about. (There might be a reciprocity concern, but that seems minimal and could be ameliorated with the addition of a targeted “X is verboten” rule.)