There’s no way to comment on the original, so I’ll say here that I’m so insanely incredibly sick of the ‘rationalists don’t actually win’ meme.
The classic rebuttal these days is that we were better-prepared for COVID than most and have avoided catching it better than base rates would predict; that seems like a win. We also created Epidemic Forecasting (which had rationalist members advising national governments) and the microCOVID Project. You also might count signing up for cryonics as a win, or becoming a prolific writer. Multiple rationalists have been internationally ranked Magic: The Gathering players (at least Zvi Mowshowitz and Aaron Gertler, there might be others).
And even if the navel-gazey type of success ‘doesn’t count,’ I still think it’s meaningful that we successfully put on major events like EAG and get people like Elon Musk to come. There’s all the work we’ve done to put AI safety on the map, which might turn out to be really important. There’s the revitalization of LessWrong thanks to the dedicated work of a few individuals. I’d wager we have more books published per capita than most communities.
For something more mainstream, plenty of rationalists have been very financially successful. Sam Bankman-Fried, who runs a crypto trading company, is perhaps the biggest example, but he’s not the only one. Multiple rationalists made millions off of Bitcoin. Conor White-Sullivan’s Roam got a crazy high seed valuation of $200M last month. ZeroCater was also founded by a rationalist-adjacent guy. So yes, rationalists do run successful startups and hedge funds.
What do people want us to do, become president of the US? Start our own country? Politics is not really our arena, but Open Phil’s access to $10 billion translates into not-insignificant influence on many parts of reality. I just don’t get what would count as obvious success, short of being solely and visibly responsible for a positive singularity. Agh!!!
Multiple rationalists have been internationally ranked Magic: The Gathering players (at least Zvi Mowshowitz and Aaron Gertler, there might be others).
Zvi entered the magic hall of fame in 2007, which suggests that he was a good magic player before the rationalist community existed. In any case, Magic isn’t a highly rewarding activity and “becoming a professional magic player” doesn’t seem like a rationalist career choice. It’s likely that the rationalist thinking got him out of being a magic pro.
Yes! I’m also reminded of Romeo’s comment about rationality attracting “the walking wounded” on a similar post from a couple years back.
I think rationality is doing pretty good, all things considered, though I definitely resonate with Applied Divinity Studies’ viewpoint. Tsuyoku Naritai!
There’s no way to comment on the original, so I’ll say here that I’m so insanely incredibly sick of the ‘rationalists don’t actually win’ meme.
The classic rebuttal these days is that we were better-prepared for COVID than most and have avoided catching it better than base rates would predict; that seems like a win. We also created Epidemic Forecasting (which had rationalist members advising national governments) and the microCOVID Project. You also might count signing up for cryonics as a win, or becoming a prolific writer. Multiple rationalists have been internationally ranked Magic: The Gathering players (at least Zvi Mowshowitz and Aaron Gertler, there might be others).
And even if the navel-gazey type of success ‘doesn’t count,’ I still think it’s meaningful that we successfully put on major events like EAG and get people like Elon Musk to come. There’s all the work we’ve done to put AI safety on the map, which might turn out to be really important. There’s the revitalization of LessWrong thanks to the dedicated work of a few individuals. I’d wager we have more books published per capita than most communities.
For something more mainstream, plenty of rationalists have been very financially successful. Sam Bankman-Fried, who runs a crypto trading company, is perhaps the biggest example, but he’s not the only one. Multiple rationalists made millions off of Bitcoin. Conor White-Sullivan’s Roam got a crazy high seed valuation of $200M last month. ZeroCater was also founded by a rationalist-adjacent guy. So yes, rationalists do run successful startups and hedge funds.
What do people want us to do, become president of the US? Start our own country? Politics is not really our arena, but Open Phil’s access to $10 billion translates into not-insignificant influence on many parts of reality. I just don’t get what would count as obvious success, short of being solely and visibly responsible for a positive singularity. Agh!!!
Zvi entered the magic hall of fame in 2007, which suggests that he was a good magic player before the rationalist community existed. In any case, Magic isn’t a highly rewarding activity and “becoming a professional magic player” doesn’t seem like a rationalist career choice. It’s likely that the rationalist thinking got him out of being a magic pro.
Yes! I’m also reminded of Romeo’s comment about rationality attracting “the walking wounded” on a similar post from a couple years back.
I think rationality is doing pretty good, all things considered, though I definitely resonate with Applied Divinity Studies’ viewpoint. Tsuyoku Naritai!