It has three sheets. The respective conclusions are: p(heads|woken) = 0.25, p(heads|woken) = 0.33 and p(heads|woken) = 0.50. One wonders what you are trying to say.
That 1⁄3 is correct in the original, that 1⁄2 comes from allocating zero probability mass to “not woken up”, and the three-day version shows why that is wrong.
It has three sheets. The respective conclusions are: p(heads|woken) = 0.25, p(heads|woken) = 0.33 and p(heads|woken) = 0.50. One wonders what you are trying to say.
That 1⁄3 is correct in the original, that 1⁄2 comes from allocating zero probability mass to “not woken up”, and the three-day version shows why that is wrong.