Replying again since I’ve now looked at the spreadsheet.
Using my intuition (which says the answer is 1⁄2), I would expect P(Heads, Tuesday, Not woken) + P(Tails, Tuesday, Not woken) > 0, since I know it’s possible for Beauty to not be woken on Tuesday. But the ‘halfer “variant”’ sheet says P(H, T, N) + P(T, T, N) = 0 + 0 = 0, so that sheet’s way of getting 1⁄2 must differ from how my intuition works.
(ETA—Unless I’m misunderstanding the spreadsheet, which is always possible.)
Replying again since I’ve now looked at the spreadsheet.
Using my intuition (which says the answer is 1⁄2), I would expect P(Heads, Tuesday, Not woken) + P(Tails, Tuesday, Not woken) > 0, since I know it’s possible for Beauty to not be woken on Tuesday. But the ‘halfer “variant”’ sheet says P(H, T, N) + P(T, T, N) = 0 + 0 = 0, so that sheet’s way of getting 1⁄2 must differ from how my intuition works.
(ETA—Unless I’m misunderstanding the spreadsheet, which is always possible.)
Yeah, that “Halfer variant” was my best attempt at making sense of the 1⁄2 answer, but it’s not very convincing even to me anymore.