Okay—WRT “credence”, you have a good point; it’s a vague word. But, p(H|D) and “expected proportion of observations consistent with data D in which the hypothesis H was confirmed” give the same results. (Frequentists are allowed to use the p(H|D) notation, too.) There isn’t a difference between Bayesians and other reasoners; there’s a difference between what evidence one believes is being conditioned on. You’re correct that your actual claim isn’t addressed by comments in those posts; but your claim depends on beliefs that are argued for and against in the comments.
The problem somehow persuades some people to imagine themselves as an instance of Sleeping Beauty selected uniformly from the three instances {(heads,Monday), (tails,Monday), (tails,Tuesday)}
That’s the correct interpretation, where “correct” means “what the original author intended”. Under the alternate interpretation, you will find yourself wondering why the author wrote all this stuff about Sleeping Beauty falling asleep, and forgetting what happened before, because it has no effect on the answer. This proves that the author didn’t have that interpretation.
The clearest explanation yet posted is actually included in the beginning of the Sleeping Beauty post.
Okay—WRT “credence”, you have a good point; it’s a vague word. But, p(H|D) and “expected proportion of observations consistent with data D in which the hypothesis H was confirmed” give the same results. (Frequentists are allowed to use the p(H|D) notation, too.) There isn’t a difference between Bayesians and other reasoners; there’s a difference between what evidence one believes is being conditioned on. You’re correct that your actual claim isn’t addressed by comments in those posts; but your claim depends on beliefs that are argued for and against in the comments.
That’s the correct interpretation, where “correct” means “what the original author intended”. Under the alternate interpretation, you will find yourself wondering why the author wrote all this stuff about Sleeping Beauty falling asleep, and forgetting what happened before, because it has no effect on the answer. This proves that the author didn’t have that interpretation.
The clearest explanation yet posted is actually included in the beginning of the Sleeping Beauty post.