This is not a rhetorical question:) What do you mean by “probability” here?
Yeah, since posting this question:
I have updated towards thinking that it’s in a sense not obvious/not clear what exactly “probability” is supposed to be interpreted as here.
And once you pin down an unambiguous interpretation of probability the problem dissolves.
I had a firm notion in mind for what I thought probability meant. But Rafael Harth’s answer really made me unconfident that the notion I had in mind was the right notion of probability for the question.
I think the question is underdefined. Some bets are posed once per instance of you, some bets are posed once per instance of a world (whatever that means), etc.
Yeah, since posting this question:
I had a firm notion in mind for what I thought probability meant. But Rafael Harth’s answer really made me unconfident that the notion I had in mind was the right notion of probability for the question.
I think the question is underdefined. Some bets are posed once per instance of you, some bets are posed once per instance of a world (whatever that means), etc.