I separately think though that if the actual outcome of each coin flip was recorded, there would be a roughly equal distribution between heads and tails.
What I’d say is that this corresponds to the question, “someone tells you they’re running the Sleeping Beauty experiment and just flipped a coin; what’s the probability that it’s heads?”. Difference reference class, different distribution; probability now is 0.5. But this is different from the original question, where we are Sleeping Beauty.
What I’d say is that this corresponds to the question, “someone tells you they’re running the Sleeping Beauty experiment and just flipped a coin; what’s the probability that it’s heads?”. Difference reference class, different distribution; probability now is 0.5. But this is different from the original question, where we are Sleeping Beauty.