I’d not discount the movement’s potential for change entirely. Consider the effect that the Tea Party has on politics right now. Are any of their candidates going to win? Probably not. But they have high priority advertising space in the political spectrum, and they can force ideas and discussion onto stage.
Likewise, while the Occupy movement probably won’t reach even a tiny fraction of its goals, it most certainly will change the political discourse, and potentially upset a few elections.
Likewise, while the Occupy movement probably won’t reach even a tiny fraction of its goals, it most certainly will change the political discourse, and potentially upset a few elections.
I can agree that is plausible.
Where I suspect we may disagree is that I am sceptical of democracy. I don’t think upsetting or winning a few elections is something that amounts to meaningful or lasting societal change. Even political discourse, at least as it exists in the public sphere, might not matter much beyond the short term.
Agreed in full! On its own, changing the political discourse has only a short term effect. But it also serves to legitimize the protestors’ viewpoints. Once you have serious discussion, you can start assembling voting blocs and existing candidates who do support your views (the progressive party seems a likely ally.) As the discussion grows more legitimate, and the voters grow more confident, your political allies gain more power. And they in turn can use that power to further spread the discussion.
You’d never have a big win, just lots of small wins, never taking a single leap of improbability too big to flip the whole thing over, until you’re where you want to be.
But it also serves to legitimize the protestors’ viewpoints.
This only works if you optimize for positive attention in media and academia. While I can see getting positive or very positive coverage from both, let me ask you, do you think the Ivy League professor or the media mogul, regardless of what noises they are making, really have it in their best interest something that corresponds to an idealised, rationally cleaned up version, of what OWSers really want? Even if the believe themselves to be pursuing something, what has LW taught us of self-deception and selection effects?
Once you have serious discussion, you can start assembling voting blocs and existing candidates who do support your views (the progressive party seems a likely ally.) As the discussion grows more legitimate, and the voters grow more confident, your political allies gain more power. And they in turn can use that power to further spread the discussion.
This is essentially part of the theory behind why a democratic process, or at least modern parliamentary democracy, should work. It is here that I also think the failure point is. I think there are systemic issues with which opinions and programs can and which can not cascade in this fashion.
“do you think the Ivy League professor or the media mogul, regardless of what noises are making, really have it in their best interest something that corresponds to an idealised, rationally cleaned up version, of what OWSers really want? ”
Of course not, which is where I think most of the difficulty in getting democratic systems to work comes in. It’s hard to communicate the will of the majority effectively, and it’s hard to tell on which points the leaders diverge sometimes. This ends up making bills that aren’t what you want, and making them frequently.
I’ll have to think of if there are any ways to change that, some hack to reduce the complexity of the task to something doable. I’ll also have to think of that sometimes when it’s not 2:00 AM. I’ll be thinking about this though, and I hope other people who stop by will too.
I’d not discount the movement’s potential for change entirely. Consider the effect that the Tea Party has on politics right now. Are any of their candidates going to win? Probably not. But they have high priority advertising space in the political spectrum, and they can force ideas and discussion onto stage.
Likewise, while the Occupy movement probably won’t reach even a tiny fraction of its goals, it most certainly will change the political discourse, and potentially upset a few elections.
I can agree that is plausible.
Where I suspect we may disagree is that I am sceptical of democracy. I don’t think upsetting or winning a few elections is something that amounts to meaningful or lasting societal change. Even political discourse, at least as it exists in the public sphere, might not matter much beyond the short term.
Agreed in full! On its own, changing the political discourse has only a short term effect. But it also serves to legitimize the protestors’ viewpoints. Once you have serious discussion, you can start assembling voting blocs and existing candidates who do support your views (the progressive party seems a likely ally.) As the discussion grows more legitimate, and the voters grow more confident, your political allies gain more power. And they in turn can use that power to further spread the discussion.
You’d never have a big win, just lots of small wins, never taking a single leap of improbability too big to flip the whole thing over, until you’re where you want to be.
This only works if you optimize for positive attention in media and academia. While I can see getting positive or very positive coverage from both, let me ask you, do you think the Ivy League professor or the media mogul, regardless of what noises they are making, really have it in their best interest something that corresponds to an idealised, rationally cleaned up version, of what OWSers really want? Even if the believe themselves to be pursuing something, what has LW taught us of self-deception and selection effects?
This is essentially part of the theory behind why a democratic process, or at least modern parliamentary democracy, should work. It is here that I also think the failure point is. I think there are systemic issues with which opinions and programs can and which can not cascade in this fashion.
“do you think the Ivy League professor or the media mogul, regardless of what noises are making, really have it in their best interest something that corresponds to an idealised, rationally cleaned up version, of what OWSers really want? ”
Of course not, which is where I think most of the difficulty in getting democratic systems to work comes in. It’s hard to communicate the will of the majority effectively, and it’s hard to tell on which points the leaders diverge sometimes. This ends up making bills that aren’t what you want, and making them frequently.
I’ll have to think of if there are any ways to change that, some hack to reduce the complexity of the task to something doable. I’ll also have to think of that sometimes when it’s not 2:00 AM. I’ll be thinking about this though, and I hope other people who stop by will too.