Yes, that’s the key issue. I’m not sure I can think of one. Do you have any ideas? I mean, what would be an unequivocal sign that AGI can take over in a year time? Something like a pre-AGI parasitizing a major computing center for X days before it is discovered in a plan to expand to other centres...? That would still not be a sign that we are pretty much f. up in a year, but definitely a data point towards things can go bad very quickly
What data point would make you change your mind in the opposite direction? I mean, something that happens and you say: yes, we can go all die but this won’t happen in a year so, but maybe in something like 30 years or more
Edit: I posted two paragraphs originally in separate comments, unifying for the sake of clarity
Yes, but I don’t know if he really did it. I see multiple problems with that implementation. First, the interest rate should be adjusted for inflation, otherwise the bet is about a much larger class of events than “end of the world”.
Next, there’s a high risk that the “doom” better will have spent all their money by the time the bet expires. The “survivor” better will never see the color of their money anyway.
Finally, I don’t think it’s interesting to win if the world ends. I think what’s more interesting is rallying doubters before it’s too late, in order to marginally raise our chances of survival.
It may still be useful as a symbolic tool, regardless of actual monetary value. $100 isn’t all that much in the grand scheme of things, but it’s the taking of the bet that matters.
Yes, that’s the key issue. I’m not sure I can think of one. Do you have any ideas? I mean, what would be an unequivocal sign that AGI can take over in a year time? Something like a pre-AGI parasitizing a major computing center for X days before it is discovered in a plan to expand to other centres...? That would still not be a sign that we are pretty much f. up in a year, but definitely a data point towards things can go bad very quickly
What data point would make you change your mind in the opposite direction? I mean, something that happens and you say: yes, we can go all die but this won’t happen in a year so, but maybe in something like 30 years or more
Edit: I posted two paragraphs originally in separate comments, unifying for the sake of clarity
He has a $100 bet with Brian Caplan, inflation adjusted. EY took Brian’s money at the time of the bet, and pays back if he loses.
Yes, but I don’t know if he really did it. I see multiple problems with that implementation. First, the interest rate should be adjusted for inflation, otherwise the bet is about a much larger class of events than “end of the world”.
Next, there’s a high risk that the “doom” better will have spent all their money by the time the bet expires. The “survivor” better will never see the color of their money anyway.
Finally, I don’t think it’s interesting to win if the world ends. I think what’s more interesting is rallying doubters before it’s too late, in order to marginally raise our chances of survival.
It may still be useful as a symbolic tool, regardless of actual monetary value. $100 isn’t all that much in the grand scheme of things, but it’s the taking of the bet that matters.