I think this is great. I think having clearer terms to discuss these things will be helpful, and I hope these get adopted.
I believe that software/algorithmic progress is sufficient for MAGI and SAGI. I also think that the necessary algorithmic advances could be found quite quickly by a large population of HAGI researchers.
Thus, I expect something like:
HAGI sometime in 2025-2027
MAGI just 4 months − 1 year after HAGI
SAGI just 1 − 8 months after MAGI.
I have some specific reasoning and evidence to support my view, but I also acknowledge that there are a lot of unknowns being filled in with hunches in my predictions. I don’t think I can make a compelling case that my expected timelines are exactly what we should expect, by I do think I can argue that these projections are within reason. I also think that even shorter timelines than I expect are possible.
I think that the set of preparations it makes sense for society to take differ substantially if you think it is possible that timelines could be very short versus if you think we have strong evidence to support the view that such short timelines would be impossible.
I think this is great. I think having clearer terms to discuss these things will be helpful, and I hope these get adopted.
I believe that software/algorithmic progress is sufficient for MAGI and SAGI. I also think that the necessary algorithmic advances could be found quite quickly by a large population of HAGI researchers. Thus, I expect something like:
HAGI sometime in 2025-2027
MAGI just 4 months − 1 year after HAGI
SAGI just 1 − 8 months after MAGI.
I have some specific reasoning and evidence to support my view, but I also acknowledge that there are a lot of unknowns being filled in with hunches in my predictions. I don’t think I can make a compelling case that my expected timelines are exactly what we should expect, by I do think I can argue that these projections are within reason. I also think that even shorter timelines than I expect are possible.
I think that the set of preparations it makes sense for society to take differ substantially if you think it is possible that timelines could be very short versus if you think we have strong evidence to support the view that such short timelines would be impossible.