That’s fair. Personally I’m skeptical of any causal chain with too many moving parts like this because the probability of the whole chain holding up is the probability of each step going forward conditional on the previous steps and that product can get small very fast. Still, it’s a funny explanation and deserves an upvote for that alone.
I was paying attention but for the reasons mentioned in the post (and possibly others, maybe groupthink?) I ended up being way more confident in Russian success than I should have been. I wasn’t copying predictions from Western experts in any direct way, though some of their model of the world likely blended over into mine in a process of gradual osmosis.
I also wasn’t surprised by Ukrainian resistance; I just thought that it would be more analogous to Polish resistance than Finnish resistance (in 1939) in how successful it would end up being.
That’s fair. Personally I’m skeptical of any causal chain with too many moving parts like this because the probability of the whole chain holding up is the probability of each step going forward conditional on the previous steps and that product can get small very fast. Still, it’s a funny explanation and deserves an upvote for that alone.
I was paying attention but for the reasons mentioned in the post (and possibly others, maybe groupthink?) I ended up being way more confident in Russian success than I should have been. I wasn’t copying predictions from Western experts in any direct way, though some of their model of the world likely blended over into mine in a process of gradual osmosis.
I also wasn’t surprised by Ukrainian resistance; I just thought that it would be more analogous to Polish resistance than Finnish resistance (in 1939) in how successful it would end up being.