Whether reputation works may depend on the questions asked. Suppose I ask whether I will enjoy my trip to Miami, a question that may attract people who don’t even know me but have been there and zhe outcome of which cannot be verified. If I can resolve such questions in a way that [edited:] allows me to cash in with my alt accounts, it will take a long time until people can get their suspicions probabilistically confirmed.
it will take a long time until people can get their suspicions probabilistically confirmed
Seems like people would just solve this problem by being distrustful (on these kinds of questions) by default. Question posers would bootstrap trust either via their pre-existing reputations, or by honestly resolving a bunch of easy-to-evaluate questions first.
I’m not sure I understand—are you saying that a subjective personal question is one where you’d be more tempted to resolve incorrectly (or delay resolution)? There’s no clear benefit to the market creator of delaying a resolution (they can’t spend the funds that are committed to the markets), but definitely you’re taking on some risk that the market creator will insider trade or otherwise act unethically on their market.
Purely subjective personal questions are questions where others cannot check reliably whether you resolved in an “unfair” way. So reputation also does not work, at least it takes a lot of time.
I edited the text of my first comment, using the words from Daniel’s comment. Maybe it’s easier to understand now.
Oh, yes, that’s a fair point! I think personal questions may self-correct for this, because they’ll draw in less interest and less volume compared to a general-interest question (so possible fraud on personal questions is less profitable). Creators may have more of an informational incentive to let personal markets work well?
But it is a good point, that personal questions are much harder to audit and thus contribute less to reputation; if we formalize a reputation system it’s one factor to consider!
Whether reputation works may depend on the questions asked. Suppose I ask whether I will enjoy my trip to Miami, a question that may attract people who don’t even know me but have been there and zhe outcome of which cannot be verified. If I can resolve such questions in a way that [edited:] allows me to cash in with my alt accounts, it will take a long time until people can get their suspicions probabilistically confirmed.
Seems like people would just solve this problem by being distrustful (on these kinds of questions) by default. Question posers would bootstrap trust either via their pre-existing reputations, or by honestly resolving a bunch of easy-to-evaluate questions first.
I’m not sure I understand—are you saying that a subjective personal question is one where you’d be more tempted to resolve incorrectly (or delay resolution)? There’s no clear benefit to the market creator of delaying a resolution (they can’t spend the funds that are committed to the markets), but definitely you’re taking on some risk that the market creator will insider trade or otherwise act unethically on their market.
Purely subjective personal questions are questions where others cannot check reliably whether you resolved in an “unfair” way. So reputation also does not work, at least it takes a lot of time.
I edited the text of my first comment, using the words from Daniel’s comment. Maybe it’s easier to understand now.
Oh, yes, that’s a fair point! I think personal questions may self-correct for this, because they’ll draw in less interest and less volume compared to a general-interest question (so possible fraud on personal questions is less profitable). Creators may have more of an informational incentive to let personal markets work well?
But it is a good point, that personal questions are much harder to audit and thus contribute less to reputation; if we formalize a reputation system it’s one factor to consider!