This is one of those “could easily go wrong in any number of ways” ideas, but...
You could plausibly have reputation encoded in other prediction markets. Like, I create a market “will X happen?” and people don’t know how much to trust me. A trusted user could create markets for any or all of
Will X happen? (Based on their own judgment, not mine.)
Will philh judge correctly whether X happened?
Conditional on X happening, will philh judge that X happened?
Conditional on X not happening, will philh judge that X didn’t happen?
And people could look at those markets to guess how much they should trust me, and people who know something about me can play in them.
Though that first one could also be done with the motivation of getting the profits from the question, where people will prefer to play in the trusted user’s market instead of mine, which seems maybe not great.
There’s still some interface work for making these reputational markets more common and visible, though—if a popular market is judged likely to be fradulently resolved, this should be very noticeable to a new user.
Kleros is another (crypto) solution for deciding in contentious cases; I believe Omen actually supports Kleros-mediated contracts as a fallback for their user-generated markets.
This is one of those “could easily go wrong in any number of ways” ideas, but...
You could plausibly have reputation encoded in other prediction markets. Like, I create a market “will X happen?” and people don’t know how much to trust me. A trusted user could create markets for any or all of
Will X happen? (Based on their own judgment, not mine.)
Will philh judge correctly whether X happened?
Conditional on X happening, will philh judge that X happened?
Conditional on X not happening, will philh judge that X didn’t happen?
And people could look at those markets to guess how much they should trust me, and people who know something about me can play in them.
Though that first one could also be done with the motivation of getting the profits from the question, where people will prefer to play in the trusted user’s market instead of mine, which seems maybe not great.
Haha, some of our users have already invented similar markets for seeing if a market will be resolved correctly (e.g. https://manifold.markets/RavenKopelman/will-dr-ps-question-about-trump-bei ). I think this is a pretty promising solution!
There’s still some interface work for making these reputational markets more common and visible, though—if a popular market is judged likely to be fradulently resolved, this should be very noticeable to a new user.
Kleros is another (crypto) solution for deciding in contentious cases; I believe Omen actually supports Kleros-mediated contracts as a fallback for their user-generated markets.