[EDIT: Bucky points out that these cases make up too high a proportion of new cases for novel reinfection to be the primary mechanism, which means that there’s negligible evidence to move the basic prior that general immunity should persist for a while (once the virus is well and truly defeated by the immune system).]
The magnitude of the numbers here seem wrong to represent people being infected twice.
From April 9-17 there were 74 newly discovered positive tests in those who had previously recovered. Over the same period there were only 203 new cases discovered. If the 74 received a new infection then they are getting infected at 2000x the rate of the general population.
Obviously there are a fair few reasons why they might be getting reinfected at a higher rate but I can’t think of a way it would be that much more. The reoccurrence of an existing infection would make a lot more sense.
Great point. And South Korea is one of the few places I trust to have counted almost all of their cases, so that calculation has to be basically right. I think that completely settles it.
[EDIT: Bucky points out that these cases make up too high a proportion of new cases for novel reinfection to be the primary mechanism, which means that there’s negligible evidence to move the basic prior that general immunity should persist for a while (once the virus is well and truly defeated by the immune system).]
In South Korea, 2% of previously recovered patients have again tested positive and are again in isolation. There are several other explanations besides a general lack of acquired immunity (which would be the worst possible case, from a public health standpoint). But it seems critical that someone look at the evidence for the most dangerous possibility.
The magnitude of the numbers here seem wrong to represent people being infected twice.
From April 9-17 there were 74 newly discovered positive tests in those who had previously recovered. Over the same period there were only 203 new cases discovered. If the 74 received a new infection then they are getting infected at 2000x the rate of the general population.
Obviously there are a fair few reasons why they might be getting reinfected at a higher rate but I can’t think of a way it would be that much more. The reoccurrence of an existing infection would make a lot more sense.
Great point. And South Korea is one of the few places I trust to have counted almost all of their cases, so that calculation has to be basically right. I think that completely settles it.