Flaw #1: The model assumes the measures most states are taking now will be as effective as the lockdown in Wuhan
The model assumes, without evidence or justification, that if we take 3 of the following 4 measures (school closings, closing non-essential services, shelter-in-place order, major travel restrictions) it will “be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan”. Many newspaper articles have covered the extreme measures enacted in Wuhan, but I will summarize them here:
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Flaw 3: The model chooses not to incorporate an increased mortality rate for Covid19 patients unable to receive medical care due to overwhelm of the health care system.
I was suspicious of the IHME model several days ago when I first saw it, but couldn’t find a detailed description of their methodology. (It’s really well hidden, and doesn’t even appear in their FAQ section.) Finally found it yesterday, noticed the “similar to Wuhan” assumption, then saw the page criticizing it linked in the comments section for the paper.
The IHME Covid19 Model is Dangerously Flawed:
Thanks, hadn’t seen that.
Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/ihme-projections/
I was suspicious of the IHME model several days ago when I first saw it, but couldn’t find a detailed description of their methodology. (It’s really well hidden, and doesn’t even appear in their FAQ section.) Finally found it yesterday, noticed the “similar to Wuhan” assumption, then saw the page criticizing it linked in the comments section for the paper.