I think there’s a decent amount of correlation with between lockdown dates and entering linear growth. Below are the lockdown dates and starts of the linear phase for some of the worst hit countries.
China 23rd Jan → 5th Feb
S. Korea 20th Feb → 1st March (This wasn’t a mandated government lockdown but people did seem to stay inside in the worst hit areas)
March:
Italy 9th → 21st
Spain 15th → 26th
Germany 16th → 27th
France 17th → not yet linear (last 2 days have been high)
Switzerland 20th → 21st
US 22nd (NY) → not yet linear
UK 23rd → approaching linear? Possibly already there
These are remarkably consistent at 10-14 days, apart from Switzerland (very fast) and France (looked like it had gone linear at about the normal time but has increased again).
This graph shows the same data but is annotated with containment steps taken by each country (it isn’t averaged over 3 days so the exact numbers don’t match up but the same pattern applies).
I think there’s a decent amount of correlation with between lockdown dates and entering linear growth. Below are the lockdown dates and starts of the linear phase for some of the worst hit countries.
China 23rd Jan → 5th Feb
S. Korea 20th Feb → 1st March (This wasn’t a mandated government lockdown but people did seem to stay inside in the worst hit areas)
March:
Italy 9th → 21st
Spain 15th → 26th
Germany 16th → 27th
France 17th → not yet linear (last 2 days have been high)
Switzerland 20th → 21st
US 22nd (NY) → not yet linear
UK 23rd → approaching linear? Possibly already there
These are remarkably consistent at 10-14 days, apart from Switzerland (very fast) and France (looked like it had gone linear at about the normal time but has increased again).
This graph shows the same data but is annotated with containment steps taken by each country (it isn’t averaged over 3 days so the exact numbers don’t match up but the same pattern applies).