Right now a major excuse for not checking outcomes is that effect sizes are too small relative to noise. This is plainly incompatible with the belief that there’s a large funding gap at cost-per-life-saved numbers close to the current GiveWell estimates, because if you believe the latter, it should be possible to bring excess deaths down to literally zero.
I don’t think anyone has claimed that “there’s a large funding gap at cost-per-life-saved numbers close to the current GiveWell estimates”, if “large” means $50B. GiveWell seem to think that their present top charities’ funding gaps are in the tens of millions.
Right now a major excuse for not checking outcomes is that effect sizes are too small relative to noise. This is plainly incompatible with the belief that there’s a large funding gap at cost-per-life-saved numbers close to the current GiveWell estimates, because if you believe the latter, it should be possible to bring excess deaths down to literally zero.
Gates and Buffett have stated intent to give a lot more via the Gates Foundation.
I don’t think anyone has claimed that “there’s a large funding gap at cost-per-life-saved numbers close to the current GiveWell estimates”, if “large” means $50B. GiveWell seem to think that their present top charities’ funding gaps are in the tens of millions.