If Putin thinks that part of his inner circle is against him I would expect him to rather follow Stalin’s playbook than make moves for nuclear war. In many situations, preparing for a nuclear strike might send signals to his inner circle that the situation isn’t stable.
As far as the game dynamics go, it’s pretty dangerous for a dictator to send his inner circle a signal that the dictator believes that he has only a 30% chance of success because that means that his inner circle has to plan for securing their power in the absence of the dictator.
If Putin thinks that part of his inner circle is against him I would expect him to rather follow Stalin’s playbook than make moves for nuclear war. In many situations, preparing for a nuclear strike might send signals to his inner circle that the situation isn’t stable.
As far as the game dynamics go, it’s pretty dangerous for a dictator to send his inner circle a signal that the dictator believes that he has only a 30% chance of success because that means that his inner circle has to plan for securing their power in the absence of the dictator.