Say Putin is considering dropping a tactical nuclear weapon in an unoccupied part of a European NATO country with the message “1,000 more will follow if you don’t end sanctions and stop interfering in Ukraine.” If Putin is entirely self-interested he might take this option if he believes it gives him, say, a 30% chance of staying alive and in power if he thinks that otherwise there is a higher chance he will be killed by his inner circle so the inner circle can keep power by appointing someone else to lead Russia, leave Ukraine, and blame everything on the now dead Putin.
If Putin thinks that part of his inner circle is against him I would expect him to rather follow Stalin’s playbook than make moves for nuclear war. In many situations, preparing for a nuclear strike might send signals to his inner circle that the situation isn’t stable.
As far as the game dynamics go, it’s pretty dangerous for a dictator to send his inner circle a signal that the dictator believes that he has only a 30% chance of success because that means that his inner circle has to plan for securing their power in the absence of the dictator.
Does it seem possible (probable?) that his inner circle would defend their power like this? Or, is there any kind of sign/indication that this could happen? I mean, it is indeed something that one can imagine but I don’t know if there is any sign pointing in this direction.
The invasion of Ukraine itself might be a sign, if you consider the invasion to be against Russia’s interest Perhaps Putin was concerned he would lose power so he started a war to shore up his support.
Two former leaders of Russia (sensu lato) are living near Moscow in peaceful retirement:
Gorbachev, who turned 90 this year, is now largely confined to his residence on a plot of government land near the Moscow homes of former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other prominent officials and celebrities. He rarely gives interviews, his assistant and former interpreter Pavel Palazhchenko told RFE/RL.
And none of the leaders of the Soviet Union met a violent end.
Say Putin is considering dropping a tactical nuclear weapon in an unoccupied part of a European NATO country with the message “1,000 more will follow if you don’t end sanctions and stop interfering in Ukraine.” If Putin is entirely self-interested he might take this option if he believes it gives him, say, a 30% chance of staying alive and in power if he thinks that otherwise there is a higher chance he will be killed by his inner circle so the inner circle can keep power by appointing someone else to lead Russia, leave Ukraine, and blame everything on the now dead Putin.
If Putin thinks that part of his inner circle is against him I would expect him to rather follow Stalin’s playbook than make moves for nuclear war. In many situations, preparing for a nuclear strike might send signals to his inner circle that the situation isn’t stable.
As far as the game dynamics go, it’s pretty dangerous for a dictator to send his inner circle a signal that the dictator believes that he has only a 30% chance of success because that means that his inner circle has to plan for securing their power in the absence of the dictator.
Does it seem possible (probable?) that his inner circle would defend their power like this? Or, is there any kind of sign/indication that this could happen? I mean, it is indeed something that one can imagine but I don’t know if there is any sign pointing in this direction.
The invasion of Ukraine itself might be a sign, if you consider the invasion to be against Russia’s interest Perhaps Putin was concerned he would lose power so he started a war to shore up his support.
Two former leaders of Russia (sensu lato) are living near Moscow in peaceful retirement:
And none of the leaders of the Soviet Union met a violent end.