My understanding is that at least the United States considered this problem, and made adjustments for it. The nuclear winter problem is much worse for ground detonations, which I already mentioned; air bursts have less impact, while simultaneously having a much more powerful EMP effect. As electronics became more important over time, the latter weighed much more heavily in American thinking on the subject.
There was also a general shift towards precision in American weapons development, which included nuclear weapons. This is the line of research that lead to tactical nuclear weapons, which have the benefits of fewer side effects like nuclear winter, or killing our own troops, etc.
As a consequence my impression is that the everything-except-microbes-dies scenario was never likely, even in the worst period. On the other hand, I now think governments and the attendant international system are quite a bit more fragile; so a general descent into bloody anarchy and the simultaneous loss of civilization’s high achievements requires much less damage to achieve.
My understanding is that at least the United States considered this problem, and made adjustments for it. The nuclear winter problem is much worse for ground detonations, which I already mentioned; air bursts have less impact, while simultaneously having a much more powerful EMP effect. As electronics became more important over time, the latter weighed much more heavily in American thinking on the subject.
There was also a general shift towards precision in American weapons development, which included nuclear weapons. This is the line of research that lead to tactical nuclear weapons, which have the benefits of fewer side effects like nuclear winter, or killing our own troops, etc.
As a consequence my impression is that the everything-except-microbes-dies scenario was never likely, even in the worst period. On the other hand, I now think governments and the attendant international system are quite a bit more fragile; so a general descent into bloody anarchy and the simultaneous loss of civilization’s high achievements requires much less damage to achieve.