we are very likely only a few months away from the long awaited Merge
Not only was the Merge supposed to happen this month (before being delayed to “a few months from now”), I think I’ve been hearing “ETH is about to switch to proof-of-stake” since the original white paper, which means the base rate on such predictions is, uh, low.
As Ether is trading around $1,000 now, I’d say that’s undervalued, even in the relatively short term of 2023. But how much can we trust these predictions?
Unfortunately, that question was set up poorly so that it is impossible to guess lower than a median of $5010. Of course, that’s because the actual price of ETH was around $4800 back in November 2021, so the predictors are basically saying that it won’t recover to that price by the end of 2022.
That’s true, but the fact that the Merge has been delayed many times in the past does not mean that it will be delayed many times in the future. For the record, I have an 80% of the merge happening by the end of this year, and 95% happening by the end of the year after.
Not only was the Merge supposed to happen this month (before being delayed to “a few months from now”), I think I’ve been hearing “ETH is about to switch to proof-of-stake” since the original white paper, which means the base rate on such predictions is, uh, low.
https://metaforecast.org/?query=ETH+merge → https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos → 59% by October, 87% by November.
Thank you for putting a number on it. Here’s another one: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9552/maximum-price-for-ethereum-by-2023/. Current prediction is $5,180.
As Ether is trading around $1,000 now, I’d say that’s undervalued, even in the relatively short term of 2023. But how much can we trust these predictions?
Unfortunately, that question was set up poorly so that it is impossible to guess lower than a median of $5010. Of course, that’s because the actual price of ETH was around $4800 back in November 2021, so the predictors are basically saying that it won’t recover to that price by the end of 2022.
I wouldn’t trust Metaculus predictions on finanical(-ish) markets a single bowl of rice.
Ethereum Merge happening is less than 3 days now
It looks like it happened.
That’s true, but the fact that the Merge has been delayed many times in the past does not mean that it will be delayed many times in the future. For the record, I have an 80% of the merge happening by the end of this year, and 95% happening by the end of the year after.