I’m not super familiar, but I just read the one page summary of the report. One of the supposed catalysts for $150k was EIP1559, which went into effect last August and didn’t seem to affect the price. The other catalyst was supposed to be PoS coming shortly after, which has been continually delayed (though probably coming soon) and will have had a much longer gap after EIP1559. ETH HODLing seems to not be significant as expected, so that’s another driver that has failed. The narrative also isn’t there, and the recent crypto crashes are working against it. The spike to $150k seems to be impossible since the different drivers didn’t line up.
Moreover, I suspect that SquishChaos’ prediction for ETH now would be at least somewhere in the middle of the price at the time of the report (~$2000) and $30k, so perhaps $15k? Instead ETH peaked under $5k in November and is back down to $1k, so I would say that the report seems pretty much falsified. That doesn’t mean it won’t hit prices that high, but I certainly would not expect them any time this year, or even in the next few years.
I would not believe at all ETH at 30k-150k by next year, which is the original thesis. However, I think that the original dynamics he discusses will have a noticeable impact on the price. Specifically, switching from PoW to PoS does one very important thing, which is that all the selling pressure from the miners (that need to sell continuously to pay for the electricity) disappears.
I’m not super familiar, but I just read the one page summary of the report. One of the supposed catalysts for $150k was EIP1559, which went into effect last August and didn’t seem to affect the price. The other catalyst was supposed to be PoS coming shortly after, which has been continually delayed (though probably coming soon) and will have had a much longer gap after EIP1559. ETH HODLing seems to not be significant as expected, so that’s another driver that has failed. The narrative also isn’t there, and the recent crypto crashes are working against it. The spike to $150k seems to be impossible since the different drivers didn’t line up.
Moreover, I suspect that SquishChaos’ prediction for ETH now would be at least somewhere in the middle of the price at the time of the report (~$2000) and $30k, so perhaps $15k? Instead ETH peaked under $5k in November and is back down to $1k, so I would say that the report seems pretty much falsified. That doesn’t mean it won’t hit prices that high, but I certainly would not expect them any time this year, or even in the next few years.
Looks like Squish himself now considers his thesis falsified.
I would not believe at all ETH at 30k-150k by next year, which is the original thesis. However, I think that the original dynamics he discusses will have a noticeable impact on the price. Specifically, switching from PoW to PoS does one very important thing, which is that all the selling pressure from the miners (that need to sell continuously to pay for the electricity) disappears.