We’re not dead yet. Failure is not certain, even when the quest stands upon the edge of a knife. We can still make plans, and keep on refining and trying to implement them.
And a lot can happen in 3-5 years. There could be a terrible-but-not-catastrophic or catastrophic-but-not-existential disaster bad enough to cut through a lot of problem. Specific world leaders could die or resign or get voted out and replaced with someone who is either actually competent, or else committed to overturning their predecessor’s legacy, or something else. We could be lucky and end up with an AGI that’s aligned enough to help us avert the worst outcomes. Heck, there could be observers from a billion-year-old alien civilization stealthily watching from the asteroid belt and willing to intervene to prevent extinction events.
Do I think those examples are likely? No. Is the complete set of unlikely paths to good outcomes collectively unlikely enough to stop caring about the long term future? Also no. And who knows? Maybe the horse will sing.
We’re not dead yet. Failure is not certain, even when the quest stands upon the edge of a knife. We can still make plans, and keep on refining and trying to implement them.
And a lot can happen in 3-5 years. There could be a terrible-but-not-catastrophic or catastrophic-but-not-existential disaster bad enough to cut through a lot of problem. Specific world leaders could die or resign or get voted out and replaced with someone who is either actually competent, or else committed to overturning their predecessor’s legacy, or something else. We could be lucky and end up with an AGI that’s aligned enough to help us avert the worst outcomes. Heck, there could be observers from a billion-year-old alien civilization stealthily watching from the asteroid belt and willing to intervene to prevent extinction events.
Do I think those examples are likely? No. Is the complete set of unlikely paths to good outcomes collectively unlikely enough to stop caring about the long term future? Also no. And who knows? Maybe the horse will sing.