“I suspect that AGI is decades away at minimum”. But can you talk more about this? I mean if I say something against the general scientific consensus which is a bit blurry right now but certainly most of the signatories of the latest statements do not think it’s that far away, I would need to think myself to be at least at the level of Bengio, Hinton or at least Andrew Ng. How can someone that is not remotely as accomplished as all the labs producing the AI we talk about can speculate contrary to their consensus? I am really curious.
Another example would be me thinking that I like geopolitics and I think USA is making such and such mistake in Ukraine. The truth is that there are many think tanks with insider knowledge and a lifetime of training that concluded that is the best course of action so I would certainly express my opinion only in very low probability terms and certainly without consequences. Because the consequences can be very grave.
“I suspect that AGI is decades away at minimum”. But can you talk more about this? I mean if I say something against the general scientific consensus which is a bit blurry right now but certainly most of the signatories of the latest statements do not think it’s that far away, I would need to think myself to be at least at the level of Bengio, Hinton or at least Andrew Ng. How can someone that is not remotely as accomplished as all the labs producing the AI we talk about can speculate contrary to their consensus? I am really curious.
Another example would be me thinking that I like geopolitics and I think USA is making such and such mistake in Ukraine. The truth is that there are many think tanks with insider knowledge and a lifetime of training that concluded that is the best course of action so I would certainly express my opinion only in very low probability terms and certainly without consequences. Because the consequences can be very grave.