the Covid-19 mortality rate is in the Goldilocks zone for allowing (bad) choices:
If the mortality rate was 20+%, the choices of herd immunity, doing slow full-scale trials or doing nothing would not be on the table. It would be “let’s try everything, anything, now, now, now!” and the vaccines made in February would have been produced and used before summer.
If the mortality rate was within an order of magnitude of the annual flu (0.1% or so), “do nothing” would have been the only choice
As it is, 0.5%-3% mortality rate is exactly the wrong number, since the right decision is not immediately obvious to everyone. And so we have the largest number of overall deaths and the largest damage to the economy possible from anything short of Oryx & Crake-style plague.
I’ll just copy my comment on a Zvi’s post:
the Covid-19 mortality rate is in the Goldilocks zone for allowing (bad) choices:
If the mortality rate was 20+%, the choices of herd immunity, doing slow full-scale trials or doing nothing would not be on the table. It would be “let’s try everything, anything, now, now, now!” and the vaccines made in February would have been produced and used before summer.
If the mortality rate was within an order of magnitude of the annual flu (0.1% or so), “do nothing” would have been the only choice
As it is, 0.5%-3% mortality rate is exactly the wrong number, since the right decision is not immediately obvious to everyone. And so we have the largest number of overall deaths and the largest damage to the economy possible from anything short of Oryx & Crake-style plague.