In other words, regression to the mean. The predictions form a line, with a positive slope. Less than 1, but only perfect predictions would have slope 1. The intercept is high, which is overconfidence. But the intercept is a statement about the whole population, not about the lowest bin.
Here are the graphs. A lot of information has been destroyed by binning them, but it doesn’t sound like DK thought that information was relevant or made use of it:
The second is different. That better matches the cartoons one finds for an image search for Dunning-Kruger. But I’m not sure it matches this post. (The third could be described as yet another shape, but I’d classify it as a line with a very low positive slope.)
The fourth graph is of a more complicated intervention. It seems like it has the opposite message of this post, namely it finds that the 4th quartile is better calibrated than the 3rd.
In other words, regression to the mean. The predictions form a line, with a positive slope. Less than 1, but only perfect predictions would have slope 1. The intercept is high, which is overconfidence. But the intercept is a statement about the whole population, not about the lowest bin.
Here are the graphs. A lot of information has been destroyed by binning them, but it doesn’t sound like DK thought that information was relevant or made use of it:
The second is different. That better matches the cartoons one finds for an image search for Dunning-Kruger. But I’m not sure it matches this post. (The third could be described as yet another shape, but I’d classify it as a line with a very low positive slope.)
The fourth graph is of a more complicated intervention. It seems like it has the opposite message of this post, namely it finds that the 4th quartile is better calibrated than the 3rd.