I think this post was a good exercise to clarify my internal model of how I expect the world to look like with strong AI. Obviously, most of the very specific predictions I make are too precise (which was clear at the time of writing) and won’t play out exactly like that but the underlying trends still seem plausible to me. For example, I expect some major misuse of powerful AI systems, rampant automation of labor that will displace many people and rob them of a sense of meaning, AI taking over the digital world years before taking over the physical world (but not more than 5-10 years), humans giving more and more power into the hands of AI, infighting within the AI safety community, and many more of the predictions made in this post.
The main thing I disagree with (as I already updated in April 2023) is that the timelines underlying the post are too long. I now think almost everything is going to happen in at least half of the time presented in the post, e.g. many events in the 2030-2040 section may already happen before 2030.
In general, I can strongly recommend taking a weekend or so to write a similar story for yourselves. I felt like it made many of the otherwise fairly abstract implications of timeline and takeoff models much more salient to me and others who are less in the weeds with formal timeline / takeoff models.
I think this post was a good exercise to clarify my internal model of how I expect the world to look like with strong AI. Obviously, most of the very specific predictions I make are too precise (which was clear at the time of writing) and won’t play out exactly like that but the underlying trends still seem plausible to me. For example, I expect some major misuse of powerful AI systems, rampant automation of labor that will displace many people and rob them of a sense of meaning, AI taking over the digital world years before taking over the physical world (but not more than 5-10 years), humans giving more and more power into the hands of AI, infighting within the AI safety community, and many more of the predictions made in this post.
The main thing I disagree with (as I already updated in April 2023) is that the timelines underlying the post are too long. I now think almost everything is going to happen in at least half of the time presented in the post, e.g. many events in the 2030-2040 section may already happen before 2030.
In general, I can strongly recommend taking a weekend or so to write a similar story for yourselves. I felt like it made many of the otherwise fairly abstract implications of timeline and takeoff models much more salient to me and others who are less in the weeds with formal timeline / takeoff models.