The update from the prior isn’t quite right here. I would have to consider what probability I would have assigned to you having the opinion outlined in your comment if the idea was bad vs if the idea was good.
As you’re only saying 50% confidence it’s hard to distinguish good from bad so an update would probably be of a lesser magnitude and would naively not update in either direction. My actual update would be away from the extremes—it probably isn’t amazing but it probably isn’t terrible.
Slightly nitpicky:
The update from the prior isn’t quite right here. I would have to consider what probability I would have assigned to you having the opinion outlined in your comment if the idea was bad vs if the idea was good.
As you’re only saying 50% confidence it’s hard to distinguish good from bad so an update would probably be of a lesser magnitude and would naively not update in either direction. My actual update would be away from the extremes—it probably isn’t amazing but it probably isn’t terrible.