Is there a mathematical expression in probability for the notion that unless someone is making a special effort (concerted or otherwise) they can’t be any ‘wronger’ than 50% accuracy? Subsequently betting the other way would be generating evidence from nothing—creating information. Why no mention of thermodynamics in this post & thread?
Not to feed the troll or anything, but yes, the masses and positions of the three weights are evidence about Charon’s movement. Why? Because if you calculated Charon’s orbit without knowing their masses, positions etc, you’d be less accurate than if you did. Fact! (Note evidence ABOUT. Evidence OF Charon’s movement is taken care of with a decent telescope!)
Eliezer, in your opinion, do the historical prevalence of organised religion, and the human tendency to faith in the unknowable/unprovable, have any bearing at all on the likelihood of the existence of a supreme being of some description?
Is there a mathematical expression in probability for the notion that unless someone is making a special effort (concerted or otherwise) they can’t be any ‘wronger’ than 50% accuracy?
That’s exactly what I was wondering. A perfect score presumably means either an amazing coincidence or perfect intelligence within the context of the decisions made. (Or is it just perfect information?) And a perfectly incorrect score would then mean the same thing. And a score that exactly matches randomness would seem to involve no intelligence or information at all, although it, too, could presumably also result from perfect information, if that was the objective.
Is there a mathematical expression in probability for the notion that unless someone is making a special effort (concerted or otherwise) they can’t be any ‘wronger’ than 50% accuracy? Subsequently betting the other way would be generating evidence from nothing—creating information. Why no mention of thermodynamics in this post & thread?
Not to feed the troll or anything, but yes, the masses and positions of the three weights are evidence about Charon’s movement. Why? Because if you calculated Charon’s orbit without knowing their masses, positions etc, you’d be less accurate than if you did. Fact! (Note evidence ABOUT. Evidence OF Charon’s movement is taken care of with a decent telescope!)
Eliezer, in your opinion, do the historical prevalence of organised religion, and the human tendency to faith in the unknowable/unprovable, have any bearing at all on the likelihood of the existence of a supreme being of some description?
That’s exactly what I was wondering. A perfect score presumably means either an amazing coincidence or perfect intelligence within the context of the decisions made. (Or is it just perfect information?) And a perfectly incorrect score would then mean the same thing. And a score that exactly matches randomness would seem to involve no intelligence or information at all, although it, too, could presumably also result from perfect information, if that was the objective.