That interpretation is inconsistent with reducing gas supply to Europe over a period of months to ensure gas supplies will be depleted after the winter of 2021. The logical conclusion from Russia’s military buildup (which intensified in October 2021) must have been that Putin plans to invade, ideally in late 2021 but at the latest in early 2022.
Why “must”? Why couldn’t it have been a bluff, in which Putin wants others to think he will invade (unless given sufficient concessions) but if no concessions are given, he plans to end the “exercises” and pull back? I don’t see how you could rule out this possibility using just the gas supply evidence. If he was bluffing, he would have wanted to make it as realistic as possible, which would have included reducing gas supply.
This is a fair point. I don’t know what economic cost Russia paid by reducing gas nor if they could expect to make that up by shipping more later on. Perhaps this was a relatively low-cost and sensible extension of the military positioning.
I guess I have updated to: could we have known that Putin was fully-prepared for war and making a credible threat of invasion. I didn’t really see discussion of that so early, and would still love to find sources that did so.
Also: a threat implies demands, negotiation. If we think in these terms, did Putin make genuinely fulfilled demands that would have avoided the war? Or was he driven by internal needs?
“Notice that [Ukrainian president] Zelenskyi is not connecting the escalation on Ukraine’s borders with the implementation of Minsk, because he knows that the implementation of Minsk could be more dangerous for Ukraine’s stability than what’s happening on the borders,” Shulga said.
[...]
Far-Right expert Michael Colborne believes that if Kyiv’s government tried to implement Minsk, there would be backlash from large swathes of the Ukrainian population.
Why “must”? Why couldn’t it have been a bluff, in which Putin wants others to think he will invade (unless given sufficient concessions) but if no concessions are given, he plans to end the “exercises” and pull back? I don’t see how you could rule out this possibility using just the gas supply evidence. If he was bluffing, he would have wanted to make it as realistic as possible, which would have included reducing gas supply.
This is a fair point. I don’t know what economic cost Russia paid by reducing gas nor if they could expect to make that up by shipping more later on. Perhaps this was a relatively low-cost and sensible extension of the military positioning.
I guess I have updated to: could we have known that Putin was fully-prepared for war and making a credible threat of invasion. I didn’t really see discussion of that so early, and would still love to find sources that did so.
Also: a threat implies demands, negotiation. If we think in these terms, did Putin make genuinely fulfilled demands that would have avoided the war? Or was he driven by internal needs?
If Putin would have gotten a deal that would have gotten him some of his demands without waging a war, that would have likely been popular at home.
But it might have been impossible for Kyiv to agree to such a deal without far-right militia doing another coup. As Everyone is talking about Minsk but what does it mean for Ukraine? says it: